Garner, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

487
FXUS62 KRAH 091943
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
345 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will move through the Mid
Atlantic region through Tuesday night, bringing stormy weather,
particularly this evening through Tuesday evening. The shower and
storm chances will push southeast and decrease Wednesday, as high
pressure approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

* Shower/storm chances will increase late today and esp this
  evening. A few strong to severe storms with locally heavy rain and
  damaging wind gusts remain possible across southern sections.

Forecast is on track, with scattered tcu and high thin clouds giving
way to increasing rain chances tonight. GOES layer WV imagery
continues to show deeply dry air over central and eastern NC, and
12z soundings and recent hi-res models showing below-normal PW over
the area, with a neutral to sinking column behind a weak shortwave
trough that exited off the Mid Atlantic this morning. The morning
CINH has vanished with increased heating and mixing under fair to
clear skies resulting in the current marginal to moderate SBCAPE
over the area, 500 J/kg W ranging to ~2000 J/kg in our E.
Extrapolation of upstream activity and the latest CAM runs still
support convection both approaching and initiating in our S late
toward evening, perhaps associated with an onshore-moving sea breeze
augmented by the increasing CAPE. Current effective bulk shear from
RAP-based analyses remains marginal but is likely to improve to 35-
40 kt by this evening, as the approaching shortwave trough over E
KY/TN/MS swings around the base of the large mid level gyre centered
over MI. Temps have already warmed to above-normal readings in the
mid 80s to lower 90s, under strong insolation and with minimal cloud
cover so far. As evening approaches, the shortwave trough coupled
with influence from nearby MCVs and mid level height falls will
boost forcing for ascent amidst improving mid level cyclonic flow
over NC and rebounding PWs, to support scattered to numerous showers
and storms, moving in from the S and W this evening and persisting
overnight, although no one location will see rain this entire time.
The coverage doesn`t support a widespread flooding threat, although
any clusters of slow-moving or meandering storms could produce
locally high rainfall totals. While neither the expected skinny
SBCAPE or bulk shear are expected to be particularly high, we could
still see a few discrete cells produce damaging wind gusts, as these
cells feed on 1000+ J/kg of DCAPE with the rising bulk shear, but
waning SBCAPE with loss of heating should curb this threat to just
isolated occurrences. With skies trending mostly cloudy to overcast,
expect warm lows tonight in the mid 60s to lower 70s. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Monday...

Tonight`s shortwave trough and 2+" PW area will persist into Tue
morning but shift ENE by midday, along with the higher coverage of
convection, placing areas NW of Hwy 1 in a brief relative precip
lull. The mid level low over N MI into central ON early Tue will
swing NE into QC, with the broad and increasingly baggy trailing
trough axis still extending SSW through the E Ohio Valley to the
Deep South. As a result, as the steering flow becomes roughly
parallel to the associated surface cold front, this front is likely
to lose its propulsion and hang up somewhere over the W Piedmont.
Skies should be generally mostly cloudy to overcast through much of
the day, esp in the E, limiting insolation and heating and thus
likely keeping CAPE marginal at most. But we`ll still be beneath the
right entrance region of the upper jet core with non-zero DPVA, and
with mid level flow remaining cyclonic at about 25-35 kts, a few
embedded strong water-loaded storms may still occur, esp in the E
where the higher PW will reside and where rain coverage will be
greatest. After a short period of just 20-40% pops W-to-E in the
morning, expect a trend to good chance (W) to likely (E) pops,
highest pops along and E of Hwy 1, with rain chances trending down
and out W to E Tue night. With clouds limiting heating, expect lower
highs, in the 80s areawide. As the surface front drifts a bit E and
becomes more SW-NE oriented Tue night, some lower dewpoints should
start to work into the Triad, as weak surface high pressure attempts
to build in from our NW overnight. Expect lows from the low-mid 60s
NW to upper 60s-around 70 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

By Wednesday morning, the cold front should have pushed through the
forecast area and be hung up somewhere along the Atlantic coastline.
Recent model guidance has shifted the axis of precipitation slightly
farther to the west, and have accordingly increased the chance of
precipitation slightly, although it will still primarily be
southeastern counties that will have the chance for rain. As the
boundary pivots on Thursday, the chance for storms will also pivot,
generally bringing a chance of thunderstorms to the south of US-64.
By Friday, the chance of storms should return to all locations as
the boundary lifts to the north through North Carolina during the
day. As central North Carolina returns to the warm sector over the
weekend, have gone with likely showers and thunderstorms, capping at
high chances on Monday due to convective uncertainty a week out.
Temperatures will be warm throughout the extended forecast, with
highs ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 90s and lows ranging
from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through the first 6 hours of the TAF period, outside of convection.
Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected this aft/eve, but
confidence in any of those impacting a specific terminal is low at
this time. The more numerous showers/storms are expected to move in
from the west around 00Z, then progress ewd across central NC,
exiting east of KRWI by 09Z or so. With the convection, expect the
usual cig/vsby restrictions and wind gusts of 30-35 kts. In the wake
of the convection, cigs should lower to MVFR, then possibly IFR for
an hour or so, and remain MVFR into the mid/late morning Tue before
lifting back to VFR by the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: Showers and storms are expected late Tue aft into Tue
night. A cold front will move into and possibly stall over, the area
Tue eve night behind the convection, with largely dry, VFR
conditions expected in its wake through at least Wed night. Chances
for aft/eve convection increase from Thu-Sat, accompanied by the
usual restrictions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...KC